What’s on our mind? You can read about it in our blog. Whether it’s ideas from the investment world or concepts from the financial industry, you can read about it here. And once in a while, we may throw in a movie review or some other surprise. So keep checking in. We’re glad to have you reading along.
Monday, September 25, 2023
Rising bond yields and fears of a government shutdown hammered stocks last week, with technology shares bearing the brunt of the retreat. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.89%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 dropped 2...
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Monday, September 11, 2023
Concerns that the Fed may raise interest rates soured investor sentiment, sending stocks lower in a holiday-shortened trading week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.75%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 declined 1...
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Monday, September 11, 2023
Source: FRB of New York, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. While the Fed may feel emboldened by a summer of economic resiliency, the clouds of recession have not departed just yet, and the best course of action likely remains one of both...
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Tuesday, September 5, 2023
Falling bond yields–spurred by weak economic data–helped lift stocks to weekly gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 1.43%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 gained 2.50%. The Nasdaq Composite index...
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Tuesday, September 5, 2023
Source: FactSet, U.S. Census Bureau, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Although U.S. companies are still highly dependent on Chinese manufacturing, this shift in the U.S.’s trade relationships is serving to highlight other...
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Monday, August 28, 2023
Stocks fluctuated last week, jostled by fitful bond yields and headline news, before ending strongly following Fed Chair Powell’s comments on the monetary outlook. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.45%, while the...
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Monday, August 21, 2023
Stocks extended their August declines last week as higher yields and weak economic data out of China soured investor sentiment. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 2.21%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 retreated 2.11%....
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Monday, August 14, 2023
Positive inflation data failed to lift stocks from their August doldrums last week as economic data and a ratings downgrade soured investor sentiment. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.62%, while the Standard & Poor’s...
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Monday, August 7, 2023
Stocks retreated last week as bond yields increased following the Treasury's announcement indicating “a larger-than-expected funding need” and a downgrade in the federal government’s debt rating. The Dow Jones...
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Monday, July 31, 2023
A Friday surge pushed stocks solidly into positive territory last week, ignited by cooling in an inflation gauge closely tracked by the Federal Reserve. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.66%, while the Standard &...
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Monday, July 24, 2023
Stocks moved to the rhythm of earnings season last week, initially rising on positive earnings surprises and faltering later in the week on key earnings disappointments. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.08%, while the...
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Tuesday, July 18, 2023
Better-than-expected updates last week on consumer and wholesale price inflation buoyed investor sentiment, driving stocks higher and lower bond yields. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.29%, while the Standard &...
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Monday, July 17, 2023
Despite a few outliers, the global disinflation trend continues to take shape. June’s CPI report showed gathering disinflation with headline CPI rising 0.2% m/m and 3.1% y/y on a seasonally adjusted basis, well below peak...
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Monday, July 10, 2023
Rising concerns about further rate hikes sent stocks lower to kick off the second half of trading. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.96%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 retreated 1.16%. The Nasdaq Composite index...
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Monday, July 3, 2023
Stocks posted gains for the week to close out a stellar month, aided by positive economic data and reports that all major banks had passed the Federal Reserve’s annual stress test. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2...
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Monday, July 3, 2023
While stocks and bonds have improved from their lows of 2022, commodities finished 1H23 down due to cooling energy prices and global manufacturing demand.Stocks and bonds have had a strong start to the year due to resilient economic...
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Monday, June 26, 2023
Stocks took a breather last week as investors digested the previous week’s surge and the month-to-date solid gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.67%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 fell 1.39%. The Nasdaq...
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Monday, June 19, 2023
Stocks climbed last week as reassuring inflation data boosted investor hopes that the rate-hike cycle was nearing an end amid fresh economic data pointing to continued economic resilience. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1...
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Monday, June 5, 2023
Stocks surged higher in the closing days of a holiday-shortened trading week, ignited by a political resolution on raising the debt ceiling and a strong employment report. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.02%, while the...
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Tuesday, May 30, 2023
Markets moved in sync last week with perceived movement in debt ceiling talks, weakening early in the week and then surging on news of progress. A solid quarterly report and guidance from a mega-cap technology company helped with...
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Monday, May 22, 2023
Stocks rallied last week, propelled by growing optimism over reaching a deal on raising the debt ceiling and avoiding a technical debt default by the U.S. The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged 0.38% higher, while the Standard &...
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Monday, May 22, 2023
Higher interest rates drove an increase in net interest margins in the financials sector, which despite the ongoing turmoil with regional banks, had a strong earnings season. Despite slower economic growth, 1Q23 S&P 500 earnings...
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Monday, May 15, 2023
Stocks were mixed last week as good inflation news was offset by mounting debt ceiling concerns and rekindled regional banking fears. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.11%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 slipped 0.29%...
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Monday, May 15, 2023
The lagged impact of extremely tight monetary policy will begin to be felt more acutely and has raised the risk of recession later this year.Following the Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) decision to raise the federal funds rate...
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Monday, May 8, 2023
A Friday rebound, triggered by a big tech company’s earnings beat and a strong jobs report, shaved much of the week’s accumulated losses. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.24%, while the Standard & Poor’s...
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Monday, May 8, 2023
Despite expectations for a slowdown, the April Jobs report showed better-than-expected payroll gains, a decrease in unemployment and an uptick in wage growth.Last week, the Federal Reserve delivered what many expect to be the last rate...
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Monday, May 1, 2023
Strong earnings from several mega-cap technology companies offset renewed regional banking jitters and weak economic data, leaving stocks higher for the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.86%, while the Standard &...
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Monday, May 1, 2023
With market volatility subsiding, real economic growth resilient, and wages and inflation still elevated, it seems likely the Fed will deliver another 25bps hike this week.At the March meeting, 17 out of 18 FOMC participants believed...
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Monday, April 24, 2023
Stocks remained resilient last week amid mixed earnings reports, hawkish Fed-speak, and lingering recession fears, closing out the five trading days with small losses. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.23%, while the...
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Monday, April 24, 2023
While a recession could lead to further declines in demand, the acute drag from housing activity on the economy seems to be behind us.Last month’s CPI report showed shelter prices growing at the slowest rate since November 2022...
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Monday, April 17, 2023
A message from RCM Capital Management's Sara Hibbs:While the prospect of lower interest rates has supported equity markets so far this year, volatility may pick up as earnings estimates are revised down.The 1Q 2023 earnings season is...
Read MoreThe combination of an improving inflation outlook resulted in a week of uneven, albeit positive, performance, in which cyclical and financial stocks rallied while technology, real estate, and utilities lagged. The Dow Jones...
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Monday, April 10, 2023
The U.S. economy started 2023 strongly, with many analysts tracking positive real GDP growth for 1Q23. However, as we show in this week’s chart, since late March, the economic data have disappointed and are pointing toward waning...
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Monday, April 3, 2023
Stocks rallied last week on receding fears of a widening banking crisis, led by resurging investor interest in technology and communication services names. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 3.22%, while the Standard &...
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Monday, March 27, 2023
Modest gains in major market indices masked sharp volatility amid the uncertainty arising from mixed messages emanating from public officials and revived banking fears. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.18%, while...
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Monday, March 27, 2023
While the odds of a U.S. recession have increased in light of all this, the risk outlook for the markets is becoming more balanced.March madness had a different connotation this year as investors faced market volatility and renewed...
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Wednesday, March 22, 2023
Chart of the Week: First Line of DefenseRecent stress in the financial sector has raised concerns regarding the monetary health of banks. Relative to the Global Financial Crisis, many banks today hold more cash, fewer risky real estate...
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Monday, March 20, 2023
Amid the reverberations of two U.S. banks being taken over by regulators and the spread of uncertainty to European banks, stocks trended higher last week on the strength of the technology sector. The Dow Jones Industrial Average...
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Monday, March 20, 2023
Investors should look past short-term volatility and focus less on which style to overweight and more on prudent company selection as valuation gaps have narrowed significantly in the past year. Last week was a volatile ride, as...
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Wednesday, March 15, 2023
Chart of the Week: An Outcome is IncomeIn our view, US aggregate real incomes will meaningfully rise by 3.75% in 2023, driven by continued job gains, positive real wage growth, above-normal cost of living adjustments, normalizing...
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Tuesday, March 14, 2023
Stocks tumbled last week as investors reconsidered their interest rate expectations after Fed Chair Powell’s Congressional testimony that rates may need to go higher. Stocks also were rattled when a west coast bank was placed...
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Monday, March 13, 2023
While trending in the right direction, in the long run, wage growth closer to 3.5% would be required to achieve and sustain the Fed’s 2% inflation target.Despite many layoff announcements, the recent unemployment rate and job...
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Wednesday, March 8, 2023
Chart of the Week: All the WagePrices across US services categories may prevail as a key driver of future disinflation. However, strong wage growth remains a headwind. Specifically, wages account for almost 40% of end-consumer prices...
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Monday, March 6, 2023
A late-week surge, triggered by reassuring Fed-speak, propelled stocks higher last week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.75%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 advanced 1.90%. The Nasdaq Composite index picked up 2...
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Monday, March 6, 2023
Recent unexpectedly strong economic data have caused U.S. investors to reassess their outlook on U.S. monetary policy. After February’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, federal funds futures were pricing in a...
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Wednesday, March 1, 2023
Help No Longer Wanted?Fourth quarter earnings releases have provided insight into corporate margin pressures, but labor market commentary signals that some of these headwinds may be abating. The share of management teams citing labor...
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Monday, February 27, 2023
Concerns over a firmer monetary policy were heightened by fresh economic data, touching off a climb in bond yields and a slide in stock prices last week.The Dow Jones Industrial Average skidded 2.99%, while the Standard & Poor’s...
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Monday, February 27, 2023
While results diverged from sector to sector, forward guidance among most companies is pointing towards a softer economic environment as demand slows and inflations remains persistent. With over 90% of the S&P 500’s market...
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Wednesday, February 22, 2023
Chart of the Week: Mixed SignalsDeteriorating economic indicators have had strong track records of predicting recessions, but many have incorrectly warned of oncoming contractions. Soft and hard data hit their historical recessionary...
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Tuesday, February 21, 2023
With growth better than expected and inflation proving to be sticky, markets have gravitated towards a new narrative of “no landing”.U.S. retail sales rebounded sharply in January, exceeding expectations, and signaling that...
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Monday, February 20, 2023
Growing concerns about further interest rate hikes, prompted by fresh economic data, reversed early-week gains and left stocks mixed for the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.13%, while the Standard & Poor’s...
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Wednesday, February 15, 2023
After a string of months of promising disinflation progress, January CPI will likely show a bounce in headline inflation due to higher energy prices and persistent owner’s equivalent rent inflation.Improving global PMIs and a...
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Monday, February 13, 2023
Stocks drifted lower as a week of mixed earnings reports and resurgent worries over Fed monetary policy dragged on investor sentiment. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.17%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500...
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Thursday, February 9, 2023
Stocks were mixed last week following better-than-expected corporate reports and increasing optimism over a slowdown in interest rates. The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged lower, slipping -0.15%. The Standard & Poor’s 500...
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Wednesday, February 8, 2023
Even as the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate by 25 bps last week, its eighth hike since 2022, savings account rates have remained low. With inflation at its highest level in four decades, the cost of holding cash is magnified...
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Monday, February 6, 2023
Despite the considerable set of headwinds, margins in aggregate have remained steady at 11.2%, with robust nominal growth continuing to boost revenues.With about half of market capitalization reporting, our current estimate for 4Q22...
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Wednesday, February 1, 2023
Stocks added to their early 2023 gains amid a busy stream of mixed corporate earnings results and conflicting economic data. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.81%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 added 2.47%. The...
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Monday, January 30, 2023
A one-time acceleration due to state minimum wage increases in January should not be interpreted as a sign that the Fed is losing its battle with inflation. While the federal minimum wage will likely remain unchanged from $7.25,...
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Tuesday, January 24, 2023
Stocks showed mixed results last week as recession fears resurfaced in response to weak economic data and a tepid start to a new corporate earnings season. The Dow Jones Industrial Average skidded 2.70%, while the Standard &...
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Monday, January 23, 2023
A message from RCM Capital Management's Sara Hibbs and Damon Walker:With a still-tight labor market and expectations for rising real income in the coming months, it's not clear the economy is headed towards recession just yet...
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Monday, January 16, 2023
Chart of the Week: A Breath of Fresh AirBrighter days appear to be on the horizon in Europe, in our view. Given a historically mild winter, natural gas prices have fallen back to September 2021 levels, easing inflation pressures for...
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Monday, January 9, 2023
Chart of the Week: New Year, New S&P 500?The S&P 500's performance in 2022 was its seventh worst since inception and the third worst since 2000. Episodic volatility, lack of earnings growth, and a high cost of capital may pose...
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Monday, January 9, 2023
A strong Friday rally triggered by fresh signs of moderating inflation pushed stocks into positive territory to begin the new year. A strong Friday rally triggered by fresh signs of moderating inflation pushed stocks into positive...
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Monday, January 9, 2023
A message from RCM Capital Management's Sara Hibbs: The U.S. labor market was a shining star in 2022 against a dim economic backdrop of tighter financial conditions and recession fears. Although real GDP normally outpaces payroll...
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Monday, January 2, 2023
Will the Global Economy Tip into Recession? Most of the world’s economies are in or near recession, thanks to slowing growth, war in Ukraine, a lingering pandemic, high inflation and rising interest rates. One potential bright...
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