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What’s on our mind? You can read about it in our blog. Whether it’s ideas from the investment world or concepts from the financial industry, you can read about it here. And once in a while, we may throw in a movie review or some other surprise. So keep checking in. We’re glad to have you reading along.

 

Wednesday, March 22, 2023

Chart of the Week: First Line of DefenseRecent stress in the financial sector has raised concerns regarding the monetary health of banks. Relative to the Global Financial Crisis, many banks today hold more cash, fewer risky real estate...

 

Monday, March 20, 2023

Investors should look past short-term volatility and focus less on which style to overweight and more on prudent company selection as valuation gaps have narrowed significantly in the past year. Last week was a volatile ride, as...

 

Monday, March 20, 2023

Amid the reverberations of two U.S. banks being taken over by regulators and the spread of uncertainty to European banks, stocks trended higher last week on the strength of the technology sector. The Dow Jones Industrial Average...

 

Wednesday, March 15, 2023

Chart of the Week: An Outcome is IncomeIn our view, US aggregate real incomes will meaningfully rise by 3.75% in 2023, driven by continued job gains, positive real wage growth, above-normal cost of living adjustments, normalizing...

 

Tuesday, March 14, 2023

Stocks tumbled last week as investors reconsidered their interest rate expectations after Fed Chair Powell’s Congressional testimony that rates may need to go higher. Stocks also were rattled when a west coast bank was placed...

 

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Monday, March 13, 2023

While trending in the right direction, in the long run, wage growth closer to 3.5% would be required to achieve and sustain the Fed’s 2% inflation target.Despite many layoff announcements, the recent unemployment rate and job...

 

Wednesday, March 8, 2023

Chart of the Week: All the WagePrices across US services categories may prevail as a key driver of future disinflation. However, strong wage growth remains a headwind. Specifically, wages account for almost 40% of end-consumer prices...

 

Monday, March 6, 2023

Recent unexpectedly strong economic data have caused U.S. investors to reassess their outlook on U.S. monetary policy. After February’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, federal funds futures were pricing in a...

 

Monday, March 6, 2023

A late-week surge, triggered by reassuring Fed-speak, propelled stocks higher last week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.75%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 advanced 1.90%. The Nasdaq Composite index picked up 2...

 

Wednesday, March 1, 2023

Help No Longer Wanted?Fourth quarter earnings releases have provided insight into corporate margin pressures, but labor market commentary signals that some of these headwinds may be abating. The share of management teams citing labor...

 

Monday, February 27, 2023

While results diverged from sector to sector, forward guidance among most companies is pointing towards a softer economic environment as demand slows and inflations remains persistent. With over 90% of the S&P 500’s market...

 

Monday, February 27, 2023

Concerns over a firmer monetary policy were heightened by fresh economic data, touching off a climb in bond yields and a slide in stock prices last week.The Dow Jones Industrial Average skidded 2.99%, while the Standard & Poor’s...

 

Wednesday, February 22, 2023

Chart of the Week: Mixed SignalsDeteriorating economic indicators have had strong track records of predicting recessions, but many have incorrectly warned of oncoming contractions. Soft and hard data hit their historical recessionary...

 

Tuesday, February 21, 2023

With growth better than expected and inflation proving to be sticky, markets have gravitated towards a new narrative of “no landing”.U.S. retail sales rebounded sharply in January, exceeding expectations, and signaling that...

 

Monday, February 20, 2023

Growing concerns about further interest rate hikes, prompted by fresh economic data, reversed early-week gains and left stocks mixed for the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.13%, while the Standard & Poor’s...

 

Wednesday, February 15, 2023

After a string of months of promising disinflation progress, January CPI will likely show a bounce in headline inflation due to higher energy prices and persistent owner’s equivalent rent inflation.Improving global PMIs and a...

 

Monday, February 13, 2023

Stocks drifted lower as a week of mixed earnings reports and resurgent worries over Fed monetary policy dragged on investor sentiment.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.17%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500...

 

Thursday, February 9, 2023

Stocks were mixed last week following better-than-expected corporate reports and increasing optimism over a slowdown in interest rates. The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged lower, slipping -0.15%. The Standard & Poor’s 500...

 

Wednesday, February 8, 2023

Even as the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate by 25 bps last week, its eighth hike since 2022, savings account rates have remained low. With inflation at its highest level in four decades, the cost of holding cash is magnified...

 

Monday, February 6, 2023

Despite the considerable set of headwinds, margins in aggregate have remained steady at 11.2%, with robust nominal growth continuing to boost revenues.With about half of market capitalization reporting, our current estimate for 4Q22...

 

Wednesday, February 1, 2023

Stocks added to their early 2023 gains amid a busy stream of mixed corporate earnings results and conflicting economic data. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.81%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 added 2.47%. The...

 

Monday, January 30, 2023

A one-time acceleration due to state minimum wage increases in January should not be interpreted as a sign that the Fed is losing its battle with inflation. While the federal minimum wage will likely remain unchanged from $7.25,...

 

Tuesday, January 24, 2023

Stocks showed mixed results last week as recession fears resurfaced in response to weak economic data and a tepid start to a new corporate earnings season.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average skidded 2.70%, while the Standard &...

 

Monday, January 23, 2023

A message from RCM Capital Management's Sara Hibbs and Damon Walker:With a still-tight labor market and expectations for rising real income in the coming months, it's not clear the economy is headed towards recession just yet...

 

Monday, January 16, 2023

Chart of the Week: A Breath of Fresh AirBrighter days appear to be on the horizon in Europe, in our view. Given a historically mild winter, natural gas prices have fallen back to September 2021 levels, easing inflation pressures for...

 

Monday, January 9, 2023

A message from RCM Capital Management's Sara Hibbs: The U.S. labor market was a shining star in 2022 against a dim economic backdrop of tighter financial conditions and recession fears. Although real GDP normally outpaces payroll...

 

Monday, January 9, 2023

A strong Friday rally triggered by fresh signs of moderating inflation pushed stocks into positive territory to begin the new year. A strong Friday rally triggered by fresh signs of moderating inflation pushed stocks into positive...

 

Monday, January 9, 2023

Chart of the Week: New Year, New S&P 500?The S&P 500's performance in 2022 was its seventh worst since inception and the third worst since 2000. Episodic volatility, lack of earnings growth, and a high cost of capital may pose...

 

Monday, January 2, 2023

Will the Global Economy Tip into Recession? Most of the world’s economies are in or near recession, thanks to slowing growth, war in Ukraine, a lingering pandemic, high inflation and rising interest rates. One potential bright...